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The PC in the first quarter of 2022 ended in a "solid" trend. Since the beginning of April, the PC has stopped since then? The answer is - it doesn't exist! It is gold that always shines. After the PC had been dormant for a long time in the first quarter, the frequency of adjustment was greatly increased after returning from the Qingming holiday, stimulated by factors such as the shutdown of the previous period, the restart of production reduction devices, and the commissioning of new devices. Let's follow the editor to briefly review the recent trend of the PC market!
Bisphenol A, there are currently 10 bisphenol A production enterprises in China, of which only 3 have an established maintenance plan in the second quarter. In the second quarter, it is estimated that 4 production enterprises have plans to put into operation, and the total domestic production capacity will exceed 3.3 million tons/year , an increase of 65.34% year-on-year in 2021, and the supply is greatly relaxed. Since April, the price of bisphenol A has basically remained range-bound, with little change. As of the 11th, the price of bisphenol A in East China was 16,500-16,600 yuan/ton, an increase of about 50 yuan/ton from the low-end price at the beginning of the month. Due to the impact of the epidemic and other factors, logistics and transportation in East China are blocked, the start-up load is limited, the spot circulation is slow, and the actual transaction remains small. On the whole, if the domestic epidemic can be controlled and logistics and transportation resume in the later period, the price of bisphenol A is still expected to rise.
For production enterprises, since April, many of the early parking devices have been restarted. Lihua Yiweiyuan's 130,000-ton/year PC unit has a restart plan in early April after a one-month scheduled overhaul. Since 2021, the start-up of 3 sets of 260,000 t/a PC units in Zhejiang Petrochemical, Zhongsha Tianjin and Hainan Huasheng has stabilized, although the 100,000 t/a PC unit in Pingmei Shenma may be lowered again in the second quarter. The average start-up level of the industry, but it is difficult to offset the increase in the industry's start-up brought by the former. Therefore, in the short term, the supply of domestic PC supplies will increase significantly. On the other hand, the tense situation in Eastern Europe is anxious and the news is chaotic, and the market opinions are greatly divided, which affects the violent fluctuation of the far upstream crude oil, but the price is still at a high level, but the cost transmission effect is general.
In the downstream market, due to the epidemic, some parts of the country are not optimistic recently, and market transportation and demand have shrunk due to its impact.
In conclusion, the raw material bisphenol A is expected to be difficult to get rid of the low-level fluctuation pattern, and the support for PC cost is limited. On the supply side, there is an expectation of further increase in on-site supply. In terms of demand, spot trading was relatively light, and most of the pre-delivery contracts were on the market. In the short term, it is difficult for the PC market in April to maintain a "stable" trend like the first quarter, and will continue to be under pressure.
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